Possible Impacts of Conflict between Russian Federation and Ukraine on Food and Agricultural Markets in Pakistan

  • The conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine is likely to create a considerable shortfall in global supply of grains, oilseeds, and vegetable oils.
  • The capacity of alternative origins to boost their supply is likely to be limited.
  • The supply gap may push the food and feed prices up by 8 to 22 percent globally (FAO scenarios).
  • Rise in global prices will ultimately affect local food prices and access to food especially for the low income groups (particularly urban poor).
  • Severe implications for the poor population who spend a significant portion of their incomes on food. In Pakistan 15% of people cannot access basic food needs and 67% of people cannot access a healthy diet and are in need of greater affordability.
  • As per latest IPC acute food insecurity analysis conducted in October 2021, around 4.69 million people are estimated to be food insecure (in IPC Phase 3 and 4) during April-June 2022.
  • Though impact of rising food prices was considered in the IPC analysis. However, additional rise in food prices may push more people into food insecurity.

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