As of January 2021, Nigeria's food inflation (national) climbed to 20.57 percent year-on-year, which is the highest level since July of 2008. The upward trend is mainly linked to pandemic disruptions and dollar shortages as well as lingering restrictions on imports of certain food items despite the reopening of the country's borders. At the same time, the incessant attacks on farmers and farmlands have prevented farmers from operating at optimal capacity which causes some shortages of goods (National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria, January 2021)

Insecurity and conflict continued to disrupt market activities in the northeast, undermining livelihoods and eroding purchasing power. Food prices in the northeast remained much higher than in the rest of the country (WFP, December 2020). Ultimately, this has led to an increase in cost of the Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) for food, reducing the food access by the already vulnerable households supported by the various government and non-government partners. In Maiduguri for instance, the Save The Children monthly monitoring indicated that the cost of MEB has increased by about 61% between March 2020 and January 2021 (Pre and Post COVID).

The Food Security Sector guidance indicates that partners can change the Transfer Values if the transfer value has changed by -/+15 as compared to the prevailing market MEB calculation, as indicated by the prevailing price monitoring in the local markets. In August 2020, partners had noticed changes in the Food MEB which were +15% above the respective transfer values, which were necessary and enough to trigger change in the transfer value which led to the first edition of Advocacy Note (September, 2020) for Increase in transfer Values.

As at March 2021, prices have continued to increased and in Gubio Local Government Area specifically, the MEB has exceeded the Advocacy Note (September, 2020) Transfer Values by over 15% for the past at least 3 months of biweekly market monitoring by the partner (Catholic Relief Services, January 2021), hence requiring an upward increment of the Transfer Value (for Gubio) to ensure that food insecure households can continue meeting the necessary food requirements. Despite prices having relatively increased in other locations as well, they have not exceeded the 15% threshold as compared to the Advocacy Note (September, 2020) hence the Advocacy Note (September, 2020) will be maintained for all other locations.