Highlights

• FAO projections indicate that world cereal production in 2022 should be around 2.792 million tonnes in June 7 million more than in May 2022 but which represents a decrease of 0.6% compared to 2021. (2.797 million tons).This decrease concerns maize in the European Union but also in Argentina and Iraq, where the area planted is lower than initially expected and where drier than usual weather is reducing yield prospects. • A 0.9% year-on-year increase in global cereal production in 2021 was recorded and largely attributable to increased maize production. World maize prices fell in June 2022 due to a seasonal increase in supplies after a slowdown in external markets. However, maize prices in the international market were above the average levels of June 2021 and the five-year average due to the increase in freight costs and the conflict in the Black Sea. • Market operations are disrupted in the region due to the low availability of local cereals due to a lean season marked by the earlier depletion of stocks and increased market dependence. This situation is mainly linked to the poor performance of the previous crop year and insecurity, particularly in the Sahelian countries, and the various flow restrictions. Burkina Faso and Mali recorded record increases in millet prices of +57% and +85% in June 2022 compared to the same period of the previous year. Compound consequences of COVID 19 related restrictions, the crisis in Ukraine, export bans and barriers to fertilizers trade continues to disrupt supply chains, particularly for manufactured and imported products, fertilizers and hydrocarbons. • In West Africa and the Sahel, only 46% of fertilizer needs were covered as of April 30, 2022. The countries most affected in the very short term are Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Mali. The price of urea in May 2022 compared to the average of the last 5 years increased respectively by +87%, +188% and +106% for the same countries. The fertilizer shortage could lead to a drop in production of 10 to 20 million tonnes, equivalent to almost 20% of the 2021-2022 cereal production in the region.