The updated analysis indicates that for the period October 2023 to February 2024, approximately 4.56 million people or 45 percent of the population analyzed in Government of Yemen controlled areas will experience high levels of acute food insecurity (AFI), classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The primary concern are the more than 1.3 million people classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Compared to the initial projection analysis for June to December 2023, the projection update analysis revealed a 12 percent increase in IPC Phase 3 and above, resulting into an overall 4 percentage point increase, from 41 percent to 45 percent.

The increase in food insecurity was due to a worsening economic crisis, continued localized conflict, reduced and irregular humanitarian food assistance and the negative impacts of Cyclone Tej, which hit southeastern coastal areas of Yemen in the last weeks of October 2023. Together, these shocks eroded some of the gains achieved from the improved security situation following the end of the truce period.  

Yemen has consistently been the poorest and most food insecure country in the MENA region, with concerning levels of malnutrition, long before the conflict. Currently, nearly half of the population cannot meet minimum needs of food consumption and high levels of acute food insecurity are becoming the norm in Yemen. Efforts to prevent a wide proportion of the population from sliding into more severe levels of deprivation are hampered by conflict, the increasing fiscal and economic challenges, limited institutional capacity, poor infrastructure, and the growing gap in essential services. Furthermore, humanitarian assistance, which helped millions in Yemen to avert the most severe levels of deprivation, has become increasingly low and unpredictable.