Highlights
• World cereal production in 2021 was estimated to grow by 1.8% compared to 2020, reaching 2793 million tonnes, due to an increase of 2.2% in world stocks in January 2022 compared to the same period last year. However, the use of cereals, estimated at 2805 million tonnes, continues to grow due to demand for animal feed, industrial use and human consumption.

• Uncertainties on the volumes of these productions and the coming one are linked to the increase in the price of inputs (fertilisers, fuel, electricity, pesticides), rising labour costs and more frequent climatic hazards (drought in North America, Western Europe and Africa, floods in South America). Meanwhile, the global economic recovery in 2021 following the slowdown caused by COVID-19 in 2020 leads to an increase in global demand. Additionally, transport costs remained very hight even if they stabilised by the end of 2021. The combination of all these factors is resulting in record levels of food prices on the international market. For example, the FAO food price index in December 2021 exceeded its highest level ever and is 34.6% above the December 2017 level. This trend continued in January 2022

• Markets in West Africa are being severely affected by these price increases on the international market. Rice, wheat, oil, sugar and more generally processed imported products are seeing their prices rise by 20% to 50% depending on the country. The situation is even more worrying for local food products which, because of the drought that the Sahel experienced during the 2021/2022 agricultural season, have seen significant drops in production (-75% compared to the five-year average in some regions of Niger). The prices of these commodities, which were already scarce on the markets during the harvest period, are between 30% and 150% higher than the five-year average in December 2021. In addition to the rise in international market prices and the fall in production, the deteriorating security situation in some countries (Burkina, Mali, Niger, Nigeria) and the weakness of local currencies against the US dollar (Nigeria, Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Gambia) are other factors driving up consumer prices.

• In some areas of the Sahel, households have hardly harvested anything and therefore have not emerged from the previous lean season. More globally, an early lean season is expected, with risks of a doubling of staple food prices in several countries while household incomes are stable or declining. The Ramadan period, which generally leads to an increase in demand and prices, could exacerbate pressure on the markets in April. These various factors could aggravate the already very bad food security and nutrition situation in the region. Early response actions by governments and other partners are essential to save lives, preserve the productive capital of the most vulnerable populations and help them prepare for the upcoming agricultural season.