Highlights

• World cereal production in 2022 is estimated at 2,756 million tons in December 2022, down 2% (57 million tons) year-on-year. In addition, world cereal stocks at the end of the 2022/2023 campaigns were revised downwards by 1.1 million in December and stood at 839 million tons, which represents a decline of 2.2% (18.5 million tons) compared to the previous campaign and the lowest level recorded in the past 3 years. World grain trade in 2022-23 is forecast at 472 million tons, a contraction of 1.9% (9.2 million tons) from its record high in 2021-22 and the use of cereals stands at 2,777 million tons, or 0.7% (21 million) less than 2021-2022.
• The FAO food index in December 2022 is down 1.9% compared to November 2022, the ninth consecutive decline in the index. This decrease is explained by the fall in the prices of cereals, vegetable oils and meat. Compared to December 2021, it decreased by 1%. However, for the whole of 2022, the FAO Food Price Index increased by 14.3% compared to 2021.
• According to WFP’s market functionality index, the functioning of markets was significantly disrupted in 2022 across the region. During the 2022 lean season, in many countries more than half of the markets assessed were indicating poor functionality; Liberia (68%), Guinea (65%), Mali (64%) and Cameroon (59%). This low functionality can primarily be attributed to price volatility of basic food commodities and low quality of services and infrastructure. The outlook for the first quarter of 2023 points towards a possible decline in cereal prices following the harvest season, but prices are expected to remain above the five-year average.
• In the Sahel and West Africa, according to official figures, forecast cereal production is 76.4 million tons, up 7% and 6% respectively compared to last year and the five-year average. Sahel Countries are recording a general increase of nearly 20% compared to last year, when there were significant production deficits. The commodities that have experienced a strong increase are particularly rainfed (millet and sorghum), maize and rice harvests, however, did not increase significantly.
• In the coastal countries, production remained relatively stable, compared to last year and the five-year average. This annual growth in production could be even more significant in the absence of