2023 predicted based on two ENSO phases, which are the La Niňa phase for the onset of rains and the Neutral phases – length of the growing season, cessation, and rainfall amount.
The Rainfall prediction – Onset Dates of Rainy season – Normal to long term average; Early onset is started from early May in Adamawa to mid-July in Northern Borno.
Cessation date – earliest cessation is anticipated to be ending September to early October (Late Cessation).
Length of Growing Season- the average length of the growing season is anticipated to vary b/n 170 to 90 days.
Rainfall amount -The annual rainfall for BAY State is predicted to range from 420mm to 1320 mm of rainfall.

The determining attributes are the La Niňa phase for the onset of rains, Neutral phases – length of the growing season, cessation, and rainfall amount, inter-tropical discontinuity (ITD) Trajectory, and Pressure Intensification and weakening.

The expected changes are the prolongment of little dry Spells from normal to abnormal conditions (> 20 days); a decrease in rainfall amount (in northern Borno and Yobe state <350mm); a decline in the Cumulative Number of rainy days from a minimum of 90 days to 67days; early cessation than forecasted in the BAY region (from Mid-September to early October);

Recommended adaptation and mitigation strategies are early planting of farm crops to avoid early cessation impact; Use of improved seed varieties with shorter duration; planting crops that can be cultivated within the expected periods; proper weeding and IPM; following the trend of weather updates and advisory from NiMet.