Executive Summary

In northwest Nigeria, 2.53 million are projected to be food insecure (Phase 3 and above) between the June – August 2021 period, according to the March 2021 Cadre Harmonise analysis. An estimated five percent of the total food insecure population (138,476 individuals) are internally displaced persons (IDPs), of which 26,000 are in emergency phase (CH phase 4). Zamfara North, Katsina Central and Katsina South are projected to be in Crisis phase between June and August 2021.

 

Among surveyed IDPs, four out of five IDPs have inadequate food consumption as opposed to only 29 percent of the general population. However, Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates for IDP children aged 6-59 months remain below the WHO critical emergency threshold.

 

Conflict/insecurity, high food prices and abduction are listed as main shocks faced by both IDPs and general population in the northwest. Very high-resolution data imagery analysis has revealed that since 2017, conflict has caused widespread settlement damage and severe cropland loss in Sokoto North and Zamfara North. Number of violent events increased in Katsina state in 2020, as per data from ACLED. Katsina also has the highest proportion of IDPs who have been displaced for less than year.

 

The use of coping strategies to meet food needs is prevalent in three-quarters of the population with similar patterns observed in both general population as well as IDPs. A third of the population has used crisis or emergency coping strategies in the past year. Use of short-term debt to meet food needs is observed in 38 percent of all households, with similar patterns of prevalence observed between both IDP and general populations, and poor and non-poor households.

 

IDP households have starkly high prevalence of both monetary and non-monetary multidimensional poverty compared to the general population. Eighty-eight percent of IDP households have monthly expenditures below the national poverty line, while 64 percent are multidimensionally poor.

 

Compared to the general population, IDP households show multiple vulnerabilities. More than half the IDPs simultaneously have poor and borderline consumption, are multidimensionally poor, and have economic capacity below the poverty line.

 

Sokoto state (in particular, senatorial zones Sokoto South and Sokoto North) have high prevalence of monetary poverty, identified by households’ expenditures being below poverty line. On the other hand, Zamfara state shows high prevalence of households with multidimensional (non-monetary) poverty.

 

Income, money or resources are perceived as serious unmet needs for both IDPs and general population. For IDPs, this is followed by food (reported by 82 percent of IDPs), followed by shelter (68 percent), healthcare (62 percent), and water (44 percent). For the general population, healthcare is the second-most pressing unmet need (reported by 57 percent of the general population) followed by safety (52 percent).

 

Recommendations

Government and food security sector stakeholders must collaborate and communicate closely to provide tailored contextualized responses to the needs of the most vulnerable population in hotspot areas with declared low levels of food insecurity, with priority given to IDPs, and the most vulnerable households of the host communities. This is essential to prevent the fragile food security situation from further deteriorating in the next lean season. Food assistance should be supplemented with long-term livelihood support where possible to reduce the impact of acute food insecurity, especially for the IDPs who should be verified and registered in the government social protection platforms.

 

Host community households who are mostly agricultural dependent and their resources have been heavily stretched by the influx of the IDPs should be targeted by seasonal support in the lean season. Daily wage earners who are more market dependent will need a year-round food assistance to maintain an adequate level of food security during the lean season when the prices are expected to rise.

 

In the most severely impacted areas of the northwest, female-headed households, displaced households, returnee households, most marginalized host community households, poorest households, those with restricted livelihood opportunities and land access, and households engaged in casual labor should all be targeted and prioritized for assistance.

 

These programs should be supplemented with women empowerment measures to strengthen the resilience of female-headed families, as well as nutrition assistance by supplementary and therapeutic feeding centers to minimize the risk of malnutrition among children aged 6 to 23 months.

 

Finally, ongoing onsite and remote monitoring of the food and nutrition situation is needed, using both traditional in-person interviews as well as advanced technology such as satellite imagery and remote sensing to gain deeper insights into the nutrition and food security situation and facilitate informed and vigorous response by stakeholders.