Nigeria

Nigeria

West Africa Seasonal Monitor 2020 WFP Sep Dek 1 2020

Post date Friday, 23 October, 2020 - 05:53
Month(s) covered 2020-09
Document Type Monitoring Report
Content Themes Agriculture, Early Warning, Floods
Sources WFP

•  So far (early September), good seasonal performance characterized West Africa region resulting 
widespread average to above
average seasonal rainfall and rainfall deficits where occurred are mostly moderate (Mano rivers and 
Gulf of Guinea and Central
Cameroon). In 2020, at this period, exceptionally, through the Sahel have prevailed well above 
average seasonal rainfall, even far
western areas over northern Senegal and southern Mauritania where remained deficits during these 
past years ( 2019, 2018,
2017…). Recent heavy rainfall over Central   Sahel and Senegal may lead to increase water level in 
the Niger River and its
tributaries over central Mali which could reach their danger level and led to flooding in low-lying 
areas along northern Senegal
and in the borders with Mauritania. Preliminary flood impact over Mali show that the most important 
exposed population to
floods are located in the Inner Delta of the Niger River in Mali. A total of 139,424 people are 
exposed in these areas of which
Djenne (40,964 people), Tenenkou (40,356 people), Youwarou (18,424 people), Niafunke (13, 203 
people), Dire (16,098 people)
and Niono (10,379 people).

•  As a result of good seasonal rainfall performance markedly above average vegetation cover 
extends throughout the whole Sahel.
Given the ongoing widespread wetter than average conditions across the region much better 
vegetation condition is expected  in
far western areas (over Senegal and southern Mauritania). Water resources have been maintained at 
good level throughout the
West African region due to ongoing favourable conditions.

•  According to short-term forecasts, into a one-month rainfall analysis up to 30 September - It is 
likely that a improvement in the situation will occur over southern coastal areas of the region - 
rainfall deficits will likely be retrieved in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Southern (Cote d’Ivoire, 
Ghana, Benin, Togo and Nigeria).

•  According to PRESASS seasonal forecasts update in July, above average rainfall is expected in 
Sahelian countries for the period July-August-September while rainfall amounts will be concentrated 
in the mid - season between mid-July and August. It emerges, the dry spells should be longer to 
normal over most Sudan-Sahelian belt in the second half of the season, including the heading, 
flowering and the crops ripening phases with high probabilities of late to normal end of season in 
agricultural areas of Sahelian countries except far northern Senegal, western Mali and the 
agricultural areas of Mauritania.

•  However, ECMWF forecasts (for September–November 2020) indicate average to mostly near average 
condition in Sahel except Central Mali, Northern and SE Senegal, half western Mauritania and 
Burkina Faso. In the rest of the region, across the southern regions conditions will likely be 
below average to mostly near average except most of CAR, Southern Ghana  and half northern Nigeria 
where average condition rainfall is expected.  The two sets of forecasts are not currently 
consistent, with ECMWF being more pessimistic.

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