Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMeT) 2019 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP)
|Post date||Saturday, 2 February, 2019 - 18:19|
|Document Type||Periodic Monitoring Report|
|Content Themes||El Nino, Agriculture, Food Security|
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) undertakes Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) annually as part of its mandate to provide timely and reliable weather/climate information and services to all weather sensitive sectors of the economy. The SRP contains predictions of onset and cessation dates of the rainy season, length of rainy season and amount of rainfall. This information is crucial for strategic planning and for climate-smart decisions and practices which could bring about reduction of losses from adverse weather, minimize disasters and maximize output. Below are the key highlights from the SRP:
The 2019 Seasonal rainfall prediction by NiMet is based on a warm ENSO phase (El Nino year) as predicted by the international ENSO prediction centers. Since there is a very high probability of a warm phase persisting from January to July-August-September season, it is expected that the predominant warm phase will moderately suppress rainfall in the country during this period particularly in the North while normal rainfall is expected from the predicted neutral phase towards the end of the season from September 2019.
- This is expected to have an impact on the timing of the onset and cessation of the growing season. A shorter length of season is expected with below normal rainfall amounts.
- Onset of rainfall expected between the 6th and 26th of June in most areas of Borno and Yobe and northern areas of Adamawa (including Madagali and Michika). Delayed onset of rainfall is however expected in some areas of Yobe such Nangere, Potiskum and Fika.
- As the year 2019 is anticipated to be an El Niño year, rainfall deficits with varying magnitudes are expected for most parts of the country, especially northwards. This is expected to have an impact on the timing of the end of the growing season.
- Early rainfall cessation is expected in most areas of Borno, Yobe and Northern Adamawa (including Madagali and Michika), which has implication for the length of the planting season. Rainfall cessation is predicted for 29th September in most areas of Central and Northern Borno and Northern Yobe and 6th October for the other zones in Borno and Yobe including Northern Adamawa.
- Shorter Length of Growing Season is predicted for most parts of the country especially over Sokoto, Yelwa, Gusau Zaria, Kaduna, Kano, Dutse, Potiskum, Gombe, Bauchi, Lokoja, Enugu, and Ikom, while Normal length of growing season is predicted over Shaki, Iseyin, Oshogbo, Ado-Ekiti, Ibadan, Ondo, Akure, Benin, Port-Harcourt, Calabar, Owerri, Uyo and Umuahia. Areas around Bida, Minna, Abuja, Makurdi and Ilorin in the Middle Belt are also predicted to have normal length of growing season
- Most areas of the northeast will experience shorter planting season. Therefore, early provision of agricultural inputs and accessibility to improved/drought resistant variety (early maturing) seeds are recommended.
Amount of annual rainfall
- In 2019, the country is expected to have rainfall amounts between 300mm in the north to 2700mm in the south. Places in the extreme north of the States of Sokoto, Katsina, Yobe and Borno are expected to have the least rainfall amounts within the range of 300-700mm.
- Some areas of Yobe, particularly Northern and Eastern areas expected to have below normal amounts of rainfall.
Dry Spell Prediction
- The probabilistic dry spell forecast shows that places around Bauchi, Jigawa, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Yobe and Borno States are likely to experience severe dry spell in the month of June. This may last 10 to 21 days after the onset spilling into July.
- The probability for dry spell in July is Moderate. However, the following areas in Borno State (Jere, Mobbar, Abadam, Kukawa, Guzamala, Gubio, Nganzai, Mongono), Jigawa State (Birniwa, Guri, Sule Tankarkar, Maigatari, Babura), Sokoto (Illela, Gada, Tangaza, Isa, Gudu), Katsina State (Jibia, Kaita, Mai’Adua, Daura, Mashi, Dutsi), Yobe State (Yusufari, Yunusari, Machina, Karasuwa), Kebbi State (Augie, Arewa Dandi, Argungu) and Zamfara State (Shinkafi, Zurmi, Maradun, Bakura, Kaura Namoda) will experience dry spell in the first week of July for 8 to 18 days spilling from the June dry spell.