In general, a slow recovery of the post-cyclone situation is expected, for the areas of the Grand Sud-Est affected by cyclones Emnati and Batsirai in February 2022, due to the weakness or non-existence of responses in terms of food assistance and livelihood restoration, hence, the persistence of a high level of acute food insecurity in these areas. For the Grand Sud, there has been an improvement compared to the situation projected in the April 2022 IPC analysis. In all periods analysed, no district is classified in Emergency acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 4).
From an overall perspective, during the peak of the lean season from November 2022 to March 2023, the food security situation is expected to deteriorate. Of the 21 districts analysed, 19 are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3)and 2.23 million people (36% of the population analysed) are highlyfood insecure (IPC Phase 3 or above). These include about 252,000people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and 1.97 million in Crisis (IPC Phase3). The districts of Amboasary-atsimo, Ambovombe-androy, Ampanihyand Bekily in the Grand Sud and Befotaka in the Grand Sud-Est haveproportions of their population in high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) of between 50% and 65%. However, the most affected districts are Ikongo and Bekily, with 15% of their population in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), followed by Befotaka and Ampanihy (10% respectively), and finally the Districts of Ambovombe, Amboasary Atsimo, Betroka, Betioky Atsimo, Farafangana, Midongy Atsimo, Vondrozo and Nosy-Varika (5% respectively).
For the Grand Sud, the easing of the situation compared to the last IPC analysis (1.35 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above versus 1.43 million expected) can be explained by favourable weather forecasts for agriculture and the sustained existence, at least until January 2023, of humanitarian food assistance or agricultural input distributions, which suggest work opportunities for rural households living on labour sales and good agricultural production during the first projected period (April to July 2023).

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