Rainfall Outlook

• The outlook indicates a 45% probability of wetter-than-normal rainfall conditions over much of the  Greater Horn of Africa, including most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, central to western Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia, and Djibouti.
• A 40% probability of near-normal rainfall is indicated over western and eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Kenya, most parts of Somalia, coastal Tanzania, and isolated areas of Uganda and Ethiopia.
• Normal to early onset of rains is expected over most parts of the region, while delayed onset is forecast over localised areas of Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Somalia.
• Despite the seasonal outlook, dry spells may still occur in areas forecasted to receive near-normal or above-normal rainfall, and wet spells may occur in areas forecasted to receive near-normal or below-normal rainfall.

Temperature Outlook 

• Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, with higher probabilities over Sudan, Djibouti, Tanzania, and parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya.
• Cooler-than-average conditions are expected over parts of central to northern Ethiopia.

Advisory to Member States, Humanitarian and Development Partners

• Actively use the ICPAC regional seasonal outlook alongside the national and sub-national forecasts issued by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs).
• Closely monitor updated seasonal forecasts, as well as sub-seasonal and short-range forecasts, to inform timely planning and decision-making.
• Scale up preparedness and anticipatory actions to minimise potential flood and drought impacts, protect lives and livelihoods, and safeguard critical infrastructure.