Highlights

❖ By end of May at the early stage of the rainy season (April-May 2023) , West Africa remains to be characterised by variable conditions. Over the western part of the region (southern Senegal, The Gambia, western Mal, most of Guinea, Guinea Bissau and western Sierra Leone), and the eastern part of the region (North-eastern Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad) as well as south-western Niger above normal rains were received. However, in the central Sahel, over southern Burkina Faso extended northern Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, abnormal dryness was observed. Central, north-western and south coastal Nigeria, experienced below average rainfall. Further north over the Sahel remain neutral conditions.

❖ Vegetation conditions As a result of early season dryness, vegetation conditions are below average across a broader area, from south-western Chad-south –northern Cameroon across Nigeria’s Central Belt. to northern Benin, Togo and southern Burkina Faso and western Mali. Vegetation deficits are particularly pronounced in northern Benin and Nigeria’s Central Belt, better than normal vegetation conditions can be observed in parts of northern Burkina Faso, central Mali, eastern and south-western Senegal, northern Ghana and central Côte d’Ivoire as well as over, northern Nigeria and southern Chad. Water resources are at very low levels across most of the Sahel.

❖ The short-term forecasts indicate that by mid-June (20 June 2023), rainfall improvement will likely be observed across West Africa Region, in particular over the Sahel with widespread wetter conditions. This may alleviate the impacts of the early season dryness and lead to more favourable conditions for the start of the growing season.

❖ According to the 2022 PRESASS seasonal forecast, above average to average seasonal rainfall is expected in the far western Sahel ((Cap Vert, Sénégal, western Guinea and sout-western Mauritania) and Central Sahel (Mali and part of northern Burkina Faso) Elsewhere conditions will likely be generally average while average to below average saisonal rainfall will be expected over coastal areas of Gulf of Guinea countries. In the sahelian Belt this likely to result in good crop prospects, but also increasing the risk of flooding in some areas. This is likely to be exacerbated by the ongoing EL Niño events which is likely to develop with 82% probability in May-July and is expected with at least 90 percent chance to continue through February 2024, resulting in the potential shift of rainfall patterns in West Africa. This associated with above-average rainfall across the Sahelian strip in July - August.

❖ Flood preparedness efforts: the underlying flood risk of admin 2 areas in river basins that are expected to experience normal to above normal river levels in 2023 highlighted: (1) administrative areas with a medium or high flood risk located in river basins with above average expected river levels in the Gambia basin, the Falémé basin (tributary of the Senegal), the Inner Niger Delta in Mali, the middle Niger river basin, the Komadougou Yobé (In Nigeria), the middle Chari, the Lower Chari-Logone (in Chad and CAR. and (2) administrative areas with a high flood risk located in river basins with average to above average expected river levels in the upper Niger River basin (in Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire and Mali), the upper Chari basin, the Lower Niger, the Bafing and Bakoye sub-basins (Senegal basin), the Mono (Togo and Benin) and Ouémé (Benin) basins and in the upper and western Volta basin. (The admin2 areas to monitor).

❖ Areas to be monitored : Average to below average over South-Western Cameroon, the southern Nigeria, Benin, Togo, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire and Liberia in April--June 2023. Below average seasonal rainfall over coastal areas of Gulf of Guinea countries (Sierra Leone, Liberia, Nigéria and Cameroon in June-August 2023.